Bitcoin enters September after a weaker August, when it closed the month at around $109,000, down 10%. However, analysts point out that the current situation could pave the way for growth to $124,500.
The September effect under the microscope: Curse or chance for a turnaround?
Historically, September has been one of the weakest months for Bitcoin. Since 2013, it has ended in the red in eight of the last twelve cases, with an average decline of 3.8%. This phenomenon is known as the “September effect.” It is related to profit-taking after the summer and portfolio rebalancing, similar to the stock market, where the S&P 500 index has historically fallen by an average of 1.2% in September.
However, this year there are signs that the scenario could be different. The price of Bitcoin is holding steady in the $105,000–110,000 range, which has turned from strong resistance to support. In addition, technical analysis shows a so-called hidden bullish divergence—even though the price fell, the RSI did not fully mirror the decline, suggesting a return of buyers.
A weak dollar and technical signals are driving Bitcoin up
Analyst Rekt Fencer mentions the similarity to 2017. At that time, Bitcoin weakened in August, found support, and then started to grow to $20,000 within a few weeks. According to analyst ZYN, a parabolic phase could develop now as well, with an attack on a new high above $124,500 within 4-6 weeks.
Another factor is developments in the currency market. The weakening US dollar, slowing economy, and expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are playing into Bitcoin’s hands. Analysts add that it is precisely the combination of strong support, technical signals, and the currency environment that could make September this year a springboard rather than a traditional slump.
