Optimism about the impending rate cuts may be misleading. The Fed is responding to a cooling labor market—and that may mean volatility rather than asset price growth.
The risk of the “wrong reason”
Markets traditionally welcome interest rate cuts because cheaper money supports expansion and growth. But this time, monetary policy easing comes at a time when the US Fed is clearly responding to a weakening labor market and the growing impact of tariffs on inflation. This is a warning sign for investors that the economy is beginning to lose steam and that a period of higher volatility may be approaching.
Furthermore, Shiller’s CAPE shows that stock valuations remain at extremely high levels. The market experienced the same situation in 2022, when the S&P 500 index fell by more than a quarter in ten months. If this scenario repeats itself, there is no reason to believe that the market would react differently this time around – a correction could come in the coming months.
Bitcoin tests support
Bitcoin broke down after several weeks of consolidation and headed for its first significant support level at $107,000. This level will be key to maintaining the growth trend, as the price may rebound upwards from it. However, if support cannot be maintained, a further decline may follow.
Other strong support levels are at $96,000 and $90,000. Although these values seem distant, in reality, it is only a loss of around 27% from this year’s high. This in itself may not mean the end of the upward trend, but it will increase uncertainty and pressure on investors. It is therefore essential for bulls to maintain close support and avoid further weakening.
