Bitcoin has seen six weeks of growth, and history suggests that a correction is almost inevitable. However, a short-term decline could be healthy and create room for a strong rally in the fourth quarter.
Historical parallels
Well-known trader Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin is just beginning the seventh week of its second growth trend since the halving in 2024. According to his analysis, these periods after each halving have a similar structure – growth that is interrupted by a significant correction.
In the past, the first phase of the uptrend usually ended between weeks 6 and 8, while the second phase ended between weeks 5 and 7. The theoretical target for this phase is now just below $160,000, but it is precisely during these periods that corrections have occurred – in 2013 and 2025 in week 7, in 2021 in week 6, and in 2017 in week 8.
What to expect next?
Trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that Bitcoin has never recorded two consecutive green months in August and September in its history. Therefore, he considers a short-term decline to be a healthy signal. This is because a rapid decline is often followed by an explosive fourth quarter during a bull market.
If there is a more significant correction in the next 1-2 months, it could serve as a springboard for a rally towards the end of the year. Conversely, skipping the decline could push the peak of the cycle closer to the present. Statistics from CoinGlass show that August is currently up 2.1%, which is above the average of 1.8%. However, September figures are historically weaker, with an average decline of around 3.8%.
