Bitcoin has shown several technical signals in recent days that point to a possible short-term market cooling. Although the long-term trend remains upward, there are signs of overheating and potential for correction.
Signs of exhaustion and an overheated market
Bitcoin has formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart, confirming the previous shooting star pattern. Combined with a 19% rise over the last three weeks, these signals indicate possible short-term exhaustion. According to Hyblock Capital, open interest in the futures market has reached levels close to historical highs, which is typically a warning sign of a correction.
Another worrying indicator is the Miners Position Index (MPI), which has risen to its highest level since November 2024. Miners have started to transfer bitcoins to exchanges on a larger scale, which usually means profit-taking. A similar trend is confirmed by the total volume of realized profits, which reached a record USD 9.29 billion. This is also contributed to by extremely high sentiment, as shown by the Fear & Greed Index, which is currently at the “extreme greed” level.
Consolidation and room for further growth
Despite increased selling pressure, Bitcoin is managing to hold steady in the $112,000–118,000 range, where, according to data from Axel Adler Jr., there has been significant accumulation.
Investors have bought over 196,600 BTC here, indicating strong confidence in the continuation of the bullish trend. As long as the price remains above $112,000, the technical structure of the market remains intact. From an on-chain analysis perspective, the market is not showing signs of euphoria yet.
The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) metric, which tracks the ratio of unrealized gains to losses, remains below the values typical for cycle peaks. This means that the market’s growth potential has not yet been exhausted and the current consolidation may be a healthy pause before the next impulse towards new highs.
