Bitcoin just broke through the $118,000 mark, updating its all-time high and surpassing its previous peak from May 2025. The momentum behind this rise is especially interesting.
Unlike previous sharp and volatile increases, the current movement appears more stable and structured. This rise seems to be supported by market fundamentals, not just hype. The key question now is whether Bitcoin can maintain this momentum.
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Bitcoin – Market signals point to stability
One useful indicator of the level of speculation in Bitcoin is the MVRV ratio. This compares the market price to the average purchase price. The ratio is currently around 2.2, well below the 2.7 level seen in March and December last year. This suggests a balanced speculative environment rather than an impending market bubble.
Institutional interest is boosting confidence in Bitcoin’s stability. On July 10, Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted $1.17 billion, the second-largest daily inflow since these products were launched in 2024. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone saw nearly $450 million flow in that day, bringing its assets to over $53 billion. These inflows represent serious long-term capital flowing into regulated and transparent investment vehicles, in stark contrast to the retail rallies of previous years.
At the same time, short positions worth more than $1 billion were liquidated, the largest single-day liquidation event in 2025, as the price of bitcoin exceeded $118,000.
Other cryptocurrencies are also strengthening significantly. For example, the price of Ethereum rose to $3,028 per token for the first time since February this year, adding 9% in a day and 17.5% in a week. Solana reached $166.2 (+5.75%) and Cardano reached $0.7 (+12.6%).
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Changing investor behavior reduces the risk of volatility
In previous bull cycles, short-term holders accounted for approximately 30% of the market. This share has now shrunk to around 15%. This is important because fewer short-term players usually means less risk of sharp sell-offs. With fewer traders seeking quick profits, there is less likelihood of sharp reversals.
Miners, who typically sell at peaks to lock in profits, are behaving differently. The miner position index is down, suggesting that miners are holding on to their bitcoins or even accumulating them rather than selling. This behavior indicates confidence in further price growth from a group that would normally sell quickly to lock in profits.
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Bitcoin – Supply and Demand
The issuance of bitcoins is limited to 21 million coins, of which ~19.8 million have already been mined. Every 4 years, there is a halving, which slows down the issuance of new BTC. With growing demand and a fixed supply, this creates the conditions for this asset to appreciate. If demand for BTC continues to grow and supply remains limited, the price could rise sharply.
Bitcoin has grown obscenely many times over in 15 years and reached enormous values – from paying for pizza with hundreds of “coins” to today’s $123,000 per “coin.” Someone who bought 10 bitcoins for $200 in 2015 is now a millionaire. However, the past cannot be changed. Any investment in cryptocurrencies is risky and should be approached with caution. What are the specific risks?
- Lack of collateral. Unlike traditional currencies, cryptocurrencies are not debt obligations – they have no issuing center. Fiat money is backed by governments (albeit with varying degrees of reliability), and the price of cryptocurrencies is determined solely by speculative demand.
- Limited scope of use. Cryptocurrencies are not accepted everywhere, and their liquidity often depends on market sentiment.
Bitcoin forecast
Bitcoin’s breakthrough above $118,000 is important not only for its scale but also for its internal strength. The rally is supported by moderate speculation, strong institutional participation, and reduced volatility driven by small investors.
Market signals and blockchain data suggest that this momentum may last longer than in previous cycles. In the coming weeks, it will be important to monitor support levels and investor reactions.
By December, traders are predicting $140,000–150,000, which is approximately 24–32% more than at present. This reflects the “optimistic mood” following the recent largest liquidation of short positions.
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