Bitcoin rose to USD 94,495 while stock markets recovered on hopes of easing trade tensions between the US and China. Still, traders of BTC futures and options remain restrained and await further developments.
Bitcoin price growth is not a certainty
Bitcoin reached a 45-day high above USD 94,000 on April 23. The gains are related to the rise in the price of gold and fears of a possible recession. Although the bitcoin price rose by more than USD 6,800 between April 20 and 22, the premium on futures remains around 6%, suggesting only moderate optimism. So far, the market does not consider this growth as a clear signal of a return of bullish sentiment.
Traders still remember the sharp drop in early March, when bitcoin plunged from USD 95,000 to USD 81,464. Since the January high of USD 109,346, BTC has lost over 16%. That it is now in line with the decline in the S&P 500 index suggests the end of a period of high risk-taking.
Markets await further developments in the trade war
However, tensions between the US and China may be easing. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has described the current tariff conflict as unsustainable and hinted at the possibility of de-escalation. This has brought calm to investors. In contrast, Donald Trump accused Fed chief Powell of holding back growth by not cutting rates. The 6.3% rise in the bitcoin price over the past 30 days contrasts with the growing demand for safe-haven government bonds.
The yield on two-year Treasuries has fallen to 3.81%, showing that some investors are looking for safety outside the stock markets and cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, the BTC options market remains neutral. The delta skew metric of 25% is holding around -2%, indicating that large investors are not expecting significant upside above USD 95,000. Although the corporate earnings season remains strong, traders are waiting for now rather than reaching for more bullish bets.
