Positive trends in Ethereum ETF inflows point to optimism for the cryptocurrency’s performance in 2025. Historical data shows strong first quarters for ETH, but experts caution that a hawkish macroeconomic environment could dampen market momentum. With new U.S. regulations on the horizon and Bitcoin’s halving behind us, Ethereum’s trajectory remains a topic of debate.
Historical patterns suggest potential growth
Ethereum has historically performed well in the first quarter following major events such as U.S. presidential elections and Bitcoin halvings. In Q1 2017 and Q1 2021, ETH posted gains of 518% and 161%, respectively, outperforming Bitcoin during the same periods. Analysts speculate that Q1 2025 could follow a similar trajectory if conditions align.
Spot Ethereum ETFs have seen net inflows during 22 of the last 24 trading days in 2024, totaling over $2.5 billion, according to Farside Investors. Experts, including CK Zheng from ZX Squared Capital, predict that ETF inflows could exceed $50 billion in 2025, driven by a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment under the incoming U.S. administration.
Macroeconomic risks to ETH growth
Conversely, Markus Thielen of 10x Research warns of potential underperformance for Ethereum in 2025 due to hawkish monetary policies and declining liquidity. He argues that these factors could prevent ETH from reaching a new all-time high, unlike in previous cycles.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $95,258, while Ethereum stands at $3,413, up 0.6% in the last 24 hours but still 30.3% below its all-time high of $4,878 from November 2021.
