{"id":54729,"date":"2026-01-07T08:16:52","date_gmt":"2026-01-07T08:16:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crypto-globe.com\/?p=54729"},"modified":"2026-01-07T08:20:51","modified_gmt":"2026-01-07T08:20:51","slug":"bitcoin-in-its-second-year-after-halving-the-biggest-test-of-the-cycle-is-yet-to-come","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crypto-globe.com\/en\/bitcoin-in-its-second-year-after-halving-the-biggest-test-of-the-cycle-is-yet-to-come\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin in its second year after halving: the biggest test of the cycle is yet to come"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Bitcoin has strengthened slightly in recent trading days, and market sentiment has immediately improved. However, the crypto exchange BITmarkets points out that such “short-term boosts” are common in a bearish trend and often only create the impression of a turnaround, even though nothing fundamental has changed. At the same time, Bitcoin is moving into the second year after halving, which has historically always been the riskiest and most painful part of the entire cycle.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why is the second year after halving historically the worst?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the past, bitcoin<\/a> has experienced the largest price losses during this phase of the cycle, with declines of over 70% being the rule rather than the exception. This is not a market failure, but a natural rhythm in which accumulation, growth, peak formation, and subsequent decline alternate. Such cycles are not unique to bitcoin; the same psychology repeats itself across financial markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the cycle works, it can also be used to your advantage. The depression and capitulation phase is often the biggest opportunity in years, because that is when the bearish trend ends and the market<\/a> prepares for new growth. At the same time, however, it cannot be ruled out that such a deep decline will not occur this time, as the current cycle is less predictable than previous ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market is blurred: there was no euphoria, and there may be no capitulation either.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The last cycle did not bring the typical manic phase before the peak\u2014a sharp euphoric growth that in the past often preceded a sharp fall. And if there was no euphoria, it is possible that this time we will not see the classic depression that was typical for Bitcoin at the end of bearish trends. The market may thus seem like driving with a fogged-up windshield: the movement continues, but visibility is significantly worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, recent years have been exceptional from a macro perspective, with extremely loose monetary policy alternating with harsh restrictions by the Fed, and new investors entering the market via spot bitcoin ETFs<\/a>. The principle of the cycle has probably not disappeared, but its dynamics are changing. That is why it is dangerous to believe that “this time everything is different,” and at the same time, it is necessary to admit that the individual phases may look different than before.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin has strengthened slightly in recent trading days, and market sentiment has immediately improved. However, the crypto exchange BITmarkets points out that such “short-term boosts” are common in a bearish trend and often only create the impression of a turnaround, even though nothing fundamental has changed. At the same time, Bitcoin is moving into the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":54722,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"yasr_overall_rating":0,"yasr_post_is_review":"","yasr_auto_insert_disabled":"","yasr_review_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[162],"tags":[99,110,93],"class_list":["post-54729","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-crypto","tag-bitcoin-en","tag-crypto","tag-cryptocurrencies"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t