{"id":53627,"date":"2025-11-19T08:02:58","date_gmt":"2025-11-19T08:02:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crypto-globe.com\/?p=53627"},"modified":"2025-11-19T08:06:40","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T08:06:40","slug":"negative-spread-on-bitcoin-futures-weakness-or-a-sign-of-an-approaching-bottom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crypto-globe.com\/en\/negative-spread-on-bitcoin-futures-weakness-or-a-sign-of-an-approaching-bottom\/","title":{"rendered":"Negative spread on Bitcoin futures: weakness or a sign of an approaching bottom?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The difference between the futures and spot price of Bitcoin has fallen into negative territory, signaling a significant shift in trader sentiment toward risk reduction. For the first time since March, futures are trading below the spot price, eliminating the usual premium value typical of a market with high demand for leveraged positions. This shift suggests that investors currently view <\/strong>risk<\/strong><\/a> as less attractive and expect weaker price performance.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative spread shows bearish pressure, but history suggests a possible reversal<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A negative spread usually appears during position closing or when the market is preparing for a period of increased volatility. Bitcoin <\/a>is currently trading in the so-called “Base Zone,” which is associated with higher selling pressure and more cautious exposure management. Both the seven-day and thirty-day moving averages are pointing downwards, confirming the dominance of bears, but historical data shows that these situations have often preceded the formation of local bottoms during bull cycles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, if conditions begin to resemble those of January 2022, the same signal could indicate the beginning of a deeper decline<\/strong>. An important indicator of a change in sentiment would be a return of the spread above 0-0.5%, which would suggest stabilization. At the same time, the leverage ratio on the futures market <\/a>is moving towards 0.3, which means a healthier market structure, lower risk of liquidations, and a more solid foundation for a possible resumption of growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Internal exchange transactions support the bearish outlook<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to analyst Pelin Ay, the sharp increase in internal transfers on exchanges is also contributing to the current bearish narrative. Although these transactions are not a direct indicator of sales, they correlate in the long term with turbulent market phases and significant movements by large participants. Analysts at BITmarkets<\/a> point out that the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025 showed a clear pattern: during rapid price rallies, internal transfer activity increases, followed by significant price corrections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the beginning of November, activity significantly exceeded the normal values of 5-10 and coincided with Bitcoin’s decline from over $110,000 to around $90,000. The combination of a negative spread, rising internal transactions, and accelerating bearish momentum thus creates an environment in which Bitcoin is likely to continue searching for its market bottom.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The difference between the futures and spot price of Bitcoin has fallen into negative territory, signaling a significant shift in trader sentiment toward risk reduction. For the first time since March, futures are trading below the spot price, eliminating the usual premium value typical of a market with high demand for leveraged positions. This shift […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":53620,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"yasr_overall_rating":0,"yasr_post_is_review":"","yasr_auto_insert_disabled":"","yasr_review_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[162],"tags":[99,110,93],"class_list":["post-53627","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-crypto","tag-bitcoin-en","tag-crypto","tag-cryptocurrencies"],"aioseo_notices":[],"yasr_visitor_votes":{"stars_attributes":{"read_only":false,"span_bottom":false},"number_of_votes":0,"sum_votes":0},"aioseo_meta":{"seo_title":"Negative spread on Bitcoin futures #separator_sa #site_title","meta_description":"The difference between the futures and spot price of Bitcoin has fallen into negative territory, signaling a significant shift in trader sentiment toward...","focus_keyword":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crypto-globe.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53627","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crypto-globe.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crypto-globe.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crypto-globe.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crypto-globe.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53627"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/crypto-globe.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53627\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":53628,"href":"https:\/\/crypto-globe.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53627\/revisions\/53628"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crypto-globe.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/53620"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crypto-globe.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53627"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crypto-globe.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53627"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crypto-globe.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53627"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}