{"id":50035,"date":"2025-09-15T07:07:32","date_gmt":"2025-09-15T07:07:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crypto-globe.com\/?p=50035"},"modified":"2025-09-15T07:11:23","modified_gmt":"2025-09-15T07:11:23","slug":"bitcoin-on-the-monthly-chart-sell-signals-and-expected-volatility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crypto-globe.com\/en\/bitcoin-on-the-monthly-chart-sell-signals-and-expected-volatility\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin on the monthly chart: Sell signals and expected volatility"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Bitcoin has returned above $115,000, while major stock markets have reached new price records and gold continues to rise. Nevertheless, the Bitcoin chart on higher time frames is showing one sell signal after another. In the context of an expected decline in interest rates, I therefore caution investors not to be easily fooled \u2014 monetary policy easing may bring about the exact opposite of what the market automatically expects.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interest rates and inflation as a key factor<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

If the Fed<\/a> were to take a significant step such as a “jumbo cut” of 50 basis points (from 5.5% to 5% as last year), it could be a very bad sign for the markets. An even more drastic rate cut would further exacerbate the situation. Unfortunately, the inflation problem is not over, as the latest report shows. Overall inflation in the US<\/a> (CPI) rose to 2.9% year-on-year, core inflation to 3.1%, and annualized three-month core inflation to as high as 3.7%. Housing, food, and transportation prices remain the biggest drivers of inflation.<\/strong> This report is the last one before the Fed’s September meeting, where, despite rising inflation, it remains likely that rates will go down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Fed is focusing mainly on developments in the labor market, which has proven to be key to monetary policy. While inflation continues to rise, employment and macroeconomic conditions in the labor market appear to be a priority for the central bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A market without momentum and technical signals<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin’s growth increasingly resembles that of a tired climber \u2014 it is rising, but with increasing effort. Momentum is lacking, which I have been pointing out since at least the beginning of the summer. Trading volume is absurdly low, and the situation is reminiscent of the second half of 2021. On the monthly RSI, the market<\/a> is unable to maintain extreme values above 70 points, and a large bearish divergence is emerging. This may mean that the current cycle will be calmer than the previous ones \u2014 without parabolic growth and a subsequent dramatic decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another bearish divergence is evident on the MACD histogram. The technical signals on the monthly chart are treacherous and take weeks to play out, but their significance cannot be overlooked. Therefore, within a few months, I expect an explosion of volatility and a return to “normal” not only for Bitcoin but also for the stock markets. A sensible investor<\/a> must base their decisions on rational arguments and also take into account that markets often behave irrationally.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin has returned above $115,000, while major stock markets have reached new price records and gold continues to rise. Nevertheless, the Bitcoin chart on higher time frames is showing one sell signal after another. In the context of an expected decline in interest rates, I therefore caution investors not to be easily fooled \u2014 monetary […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":50028,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"yasr_overall_rating":0,"yasr_post_is_review":"","yasr_auto_insert_disabled":"","yasr_review_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[162],"tags":[99,93,235],"class_list":["post-50035","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-crypto","tag-bitcoin-en","tag-cryptocurrencies","tag-usa-2"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t